Posts

Gold and Airlines: attractive ETFs for next weeks

Image
Gold is very attractive again. Due to its fundamentals, Gold is a great option for the next weeks, given that its inverse counterpart, the dollar, may continue to weaken due to two certain factors: the approval, increasingly close, of the US stimulus bill and the lower trend in inflation. Its risk is still there and gold can take advantage of that situation until the end of the year. Technically GLD , the gold ETF, presents a very attractive chart, the kind that every trader wants. In the 4-hour price, the price is located in a powerful key zone : on the one hand, a 2-month purple downtrend line with up to 4 touches. Also, its crucial SMA200 average, in light-blue hit on Thursday. And last but not least, its green Fibonacci retracement of 23.6% of its rise since March. Its black EMA50 confirms a bullish bias. Overcoming this zone will be decisive for next bullish behavior, with resistance at the psychological level 2000 of its future /GC . So, as usual, check price action before a t

Only ETFs of my Q4 Long Portfolio

Image
On my Thinkorswim trading platform, I manage several watchlists, differentiating them according to the instruments it contains. There are stocks, futures, ETFs, sectors, and indices watchlists. My different  ETFs  watchlists usually keep the same symbols in time, diversified by sectors, industries, countries, commodities, both at 1X normal speed and 3X triple speed.  My  Indices ,  sectors , and  futures  watchlists are also fixed, covering the main indexes and commodities from Wall Street and major foreign exchanges, usual symbols well-known by all traders. Those that do change, usually monthly, are the symbols of my  Stock Watchlist , stocks which I follow on a daily basis, due to my own research, that consider both fundamental and technical analysis, news topics, or simply popularity. Over time, it appears in the list new stocks, disappear others, according to the importance they are acquiring, in my opinion.  Q4 Watchlist (Oct-Nov-Dec) After three months (Feb/Mar/Apr) usi

Nasdaq Ready for the Yearend Reversal

Image
September ends and he does his usual job in the markets: being a bearish month, in this case correcting the excessive rise of the SP500 and Nasdaq, artificially driven by the Fed and the FAMAGs. And October may be a key month for the immediate future on Wall Street. Seasonally, that month is known to kick off a year-end strong bullish rally , but now we are in an election year and no surprise should be ruled out. Keep in mind the following fundamental aspects , which will define the bias of the market in this last quarter, prior to making long-term decisions. Smart money, hedge funds, and institutions will do the same this week, prior to the end of the quarter, before proceeding with their usual rebalancing of portfolios. If they do, even more so we, the retailers. 1- The US elections in November, which heat up this week with the first Trump-Biden debate. Wall Street does not trust Biden and his economic program. It now prefers, by far, Trump's victory. And investors are

FOMC could drive Markets this week

Image
Highlights that will move the stock markets this week: - The Fed meets on Wednesday for the final time before the Nov. 3 presidential election with investors hoping to learn more about its decision to tolerate higher inflation.    The Fed’s decision to tolerate periods of higher inflation effectively means that interest rates will remain lower for longer. Meanwhile, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan will both hold policy meetings just hours after the Fed on  Thursday . - Markets will also be paying close attention to data on U.S. Retail Sales for August, out on Wednesday , and initial jobless claims figures on Thursday .  The number of new claims for unemployment benefits hovered at elevated levels last week, suggesting the labor market recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic was stalling as government financial aid to businesses and the unemployed dries up. - Last week’s volatility in stocks could continue with a much-awaited fiscal aid package stalled in the

Option Strategies for Earnings Season

Image
Buy a stock just before its earnings report is a bet: it can be highly profitable or devastating for your portfolio. You decide the risk you face. I always prefer to wait for the report, to compare their numbers with the estimates in EPS, sales, and guidance, review the conference call for some additional data and see the next day analyst's ratings, which usually increases or decreases their weighting and price target. And, of course, you can use specific options strategies during these events. Let's overview some ideas as to choose the right strategy. You need to know the following principles: -  A strategy that involves  long  options (been calls or puts) will typically  gain value as IV increases  and lose value quickly with IV decreases. - On the contrary, a strategy that involves  short  options (been calls or puts) will typically  gain value quickly with IV decreases  and lose value as IV increases. - During an earnings event,  the implied volatility IV of