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My Stock Watchlist for January 2019

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- On my Thinkorswim trading platform, I manage several watchlists, differentiating them according to the instruments it contains. There are stocks, futures, ETFs, sectors, and indices.

- My ETFs watchlists (not shown) usually keep the same symbols in time, diversified by sectors, industries, countries, commodities, both at 1X normal speed and 3X triple speed, combining long and shorts positions.

- My Indices, sectors, and futures watchlists (not shown) are also fixed, covering the main index and commodities in Wall Street and major foreign exchanges, the usual managed by all traders.

- Those that do change permanently (usually weekly) are the symbols of my stock watchlists, shown below.

- I divided them into two groups for follow-up: Main15, which I follow on a daily basis, and Active, important stocks to follow due to news topics, popularity, unusual volume in shares or options, or huge changes in price or volatility. Over time, appears there a new stock, disappear other, some asce…

Elder: A Major Buy Signal on Stand-By

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By kind permission of Elder.com, the website of the recognized trader, Alexander Elder, I reproduce for you, literally, its article "Books and Trades #254: A major Buy signal on stand-by" of November 27th, about the actual behavior of the market and its incredible behavior in the Christmas week.



December 27, 2018

Dear Trader,

In my experience, the New High – New Low Index is the best leading indicator of the stock market. It works by tracking market leaders: the New Highs are the leaders of strength, New Lows of weakness. I track this indicator on both weekly and daily charts, in four look-back time windows. We post nightly updates of this indicator at SpikeTrade.com

My research during the past decade shows that the strongest signal of NHNL is a Spike – it occurs when the weekly NHNL drops below the minus 4,000 level and then rallies about it, showing that the decline has become exhausted. Let’s take a look:

This chart shows Spike signals during the 2008 bear market. Even in…

Stock Market reading through its main indices

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SP500, close 2416.62
I omit the Dow Jones in this article on the main indices of the market, because, to my liking, it is only a traditional index of Wall Street, a classic, but only useful as a daily reference ('how many points rose or fell today'), but unreliable for a serious analysis, because it is very small (only 30 companies) and limited to the industry sector, which does not reflect the entire market as the SP500 SPX does.

It is important to refer to the FED, the protagonist of the week, which raised interest rates by 0.25% to the range of 2.25-2.5%. In my opinion, an erroneous Rate Hike and also with a tone not as dovish as expected by investors. With a clear deceleration of its economy a few months ago due to effects of the Trade War among other factors, with forecasts of growth to the downside, with stagnant inflation and lower than expected, with the crude oil /CL prices falling to levels of $45, with a dangerously flat yield curve, I don't understand the reas…

The Apocalypse of the Retail sector?

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The purchase of organic giant Whole Foods WFM by Amazon AMZN at $13,700M continues to generate headlines within a week of its announcement. The immediate repercussion is the reinforcement in the fall of the Retail XTR sub-sector, which was already terrible in 2017 with news such as the closing of giant stores in the sector (Sears: 19 of its stores and 72 more on the way, JC Penney, RadioShack, Macy, among many others), Experts estimate that we are witnessing the beginning of the end of the retail as an economic model and lifestyle in the US, exported to the whole world. This good article by Francisco Jiménez for El Economista covers what I( say.




Grocery supermarkets, direct competitors, felt the blow, it is enough to see a week their falls in the price of their stocks:
Kroger KR -25%
Target TGT -13%
Costco COST -10%
WalMart WMT -5%


The new strategies, promotions and loyalty chains will be everything for these companies if they want to lose part of their market share to the technologi…

Wild sessions last week in Wall Street

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Market Pulse.
Ends a wild week in Wall Street, with the SP500 and the Nasdaq, already settled in a bearish environment, with its worst week since March, and almost all technical indicators negatives. Both started the week very optimistic (Monday + 2%) after the G20 and the news of an apparent truce in the US-China trade war, a fact that was losing strength as details of it were known, and protagonists of it, like Trump or Kudlow, began to spoke. The final thrust occurred half a week ago with the arrest of Ms. Meng Wanzhou, Huawei CFO, a police-diplomatic event that, if misused by the Chinese as it seems to be, can cause major problems for the markets. Wall Street understood it, finally closing with a worrying cumulative weekly drop of -5% in its main indices. And, technically, SPX has already lost the key SMA 200-day support, and now is facing a 'death cross' pattern between the moving averages 50 and 200-day, a clear bearish signal. It is not infallible but it must be taken …

December depends on the Trump-Xi meeting this weekend

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SP500: two resistance levels to break.
This week closes with a strong rebound of all Wall Street indices, starting with the most important one, the SP500 SPX, which recovered 5% since last Friday, at its last pullback, reaching again its crucial SMA200 average, and also the lower part of the Ichimoku cloud. Attention to these two important resistances because if it exceeds them, it can be the starting point to the traditional Christmas mini-rally. It is known that December is, seasonally, the best month in the stock markets, not only in the US but globally. But... wait for Trump-Xi meeting...







Factors
What factors have originated this bullish week? I see several. Perhaps the main one is the change of tone in the messages of the FED, recently hawkish, encouraging more Rate Hike adducing were necessary to boost the economy, to the completely dovish image of Powell this week, now announcing that the i-rate is in levels "just below neutral", that is, 'if I raise the i-rate I…

Stocks to Watch: US Crude Oil Fund $USO (/CL)

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Background:
As I have usually written in this blog, I do not trade with futures, but I follow them daily because they are the basis of all my analysis. This time I will review the protagonist of the last two months, the Crude Oil /CL, which can be traded through the popular ETF USO, or at triple speed through UCO, for riskiest traders.



Fundamentals:
The fall of oil in October and November has been the deepest that has suffered since the remembered pullback of 2014. Of its annual maximum, at the beginning of October, of almost $ 77, today oscillates in levels of $ 50, that is to say, a descent of almost 35%, something very uncommon. It's because we are living a new era in the leadership of the crude. Today the price is decided by a trio of unpredictable governors like Trump, Putin, and Bin Salman. The oil production of their countries, together, represent almost 40% of the world supply, surpassing the once-powerful OPEC, and making its decisions almost unnoticed. Even less is th…

Alexander Elder reviews the current Market

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By kind permission of Elder.com, the website of the recognized trader, Alexander Elder, I reproduce for you, literally, its article "Books and Trades #252: Current market, Thanksgiving Special" of November 21st, about the actual behavior of the market and his outlook for the next months.



November 21, 2018
Dear Trader,

I haven’t written to you in a while, but felt compelled to do it today, in view of the current market situation.

There is a definite sound and smell of panic. Go to any news website, and their waves of fear hit you in the face. Don’t you think that if those writers knew how to trade, they would be making money instead of spreading emotional waves. Here’s what I recognize in the current markets:




Bull markets are defined by the pattern of higher highs and higher lows

This pattern is intact on this weekly chart of the S&P as well as the Dow (not shown).

The bottoms of severe corrections are usually retested on lower volume.

The latest decline was just such a corre…

Watchlist Update: Market Pulse, Sectors, AAPL, NVDA

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Market Pulse.
The stock market is threatening to finally enter a bearish stage, judging by the movement of SPX that, technically, fell again under the SMA200 and struggles to overcome it. We mentioned that its monthly chart closing under the SMA10 was a bad sign, and now the usual Christmas mini-rally is in danger of not being made. Some notes:

- The Apple AAPL 5% correction is pulling down the Nasdaq and the entire technology sector XLK, and this time seems it will continue in the short term because there are some fundamental aspects.

- The Trade War makes Wall Street move according to its rumors, news and subsequent denials. Now, it seems that Trump and Xi could meet on November 30 at the G20 Summit.

- The VIX volatility reached the psychological value of 20, after many indecisive sessions.

- The dollar remains very strong against all its peers, but today's inflation flat data can generate more pressure to the FED about a Rate Hike in December.

- On the other hand, the apparen…

A Second Line of Technical Indicators

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Yes ! There are many reliable indicators as MACD and RSI !
The oscillators MACD and RSI, together with the moving averages, form the standard trifecta of a trader for the technical analysis. Because of its popularity, efficiency, and simplicity, everyone, without exception, knows and uses them. So I'm not going to detail its benefits, only give some additional notes about them.

The MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) combines trend with momentum (or acceleration) of the price, and its signals are simple, we know: bull and bear crossovers, line plot above zero means trend up, the plot below zero means trend down, a rising histogram means buyers in control increasing momentum, a falling histogram means sellers in control increasing momentum. And we get a trade signal (that needs confirmation) only when the crossover is bullish and the histogram rising. Or a bearish crossover with the histogram falling. Avoid the two other combinations.

My personal contribution: take care o…

Weekly Outlook for the SP500

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SP500: Some keys for the week.
In the fundamental aspects, there are important events this week that will determine the path of the SPX, highlighting two: one, the US Midterm elections, which will surely end with the Senate in the hands of the Republicans, and the Congress probably with the Democrats. Any other result would give the market strong volatility. The other, on Thursday there will be the FED Announcement, where, although no Rate Hike is expected, traders' eyes are in the report with the perspectives of the Central Bank for 2019. In the background, like every week since April, the catalyst of always: the news of the advances (or setbacks) in the Trade War with China. Any news here moves exaggeratedly the SPX and the entire market. Thus, last Friday, Trump announced that he was close to an agreement with China (SPX immediately soaring 1%), and then Larry Kudlow expressed prudence even on the subject (SPX abrupt sinking -1%). All in a few hours of the session.





I suggest e…

My Stock Watchlist for November- December 2018

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On my Thinkorswim trading platform, I manage several watchlists, differentiating them according to the instruments it contains. There are stocks, futures, ETFs, sectors, and indices.

The ETFs watchlists usually keep the same symbols in time, having sectors, countries, commodities, both at 1X normal speed and 3X triple speed. Indices, sectors, and futures are also fixed, covering the main index and commodities in Wall Street and major foreign exchanges, the usual managed by all traders.

Those that change permanently (usually weekly) are the symbols of the stock watchlists.

I divided them into two groups for follow-up: Main, which I follow on a daily basis, and Active, important stocks to follow due to news topics, popularity, unusual volume in shares or options, huge changes in price or volatility. Over time, appears a new, disappear other, some ascend to Main, or vice versa, according to the importance they are acquiring, in my opinion.

That a certain stock is in these lists does NOT …