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Showing posts from December, 2018

My Stock Watchlist for January 2019

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- On my Thinkorswim trading platform, I manage several watchlists, differentiating them according to the instruments it contains. There are stocks, futures, ETFs, sectors, and indices.

- My ETFs watchlists (not shown) usually keep the same symbols in time, diversified by sectors, industries, countries, commodities, both at 1X normal speed and 3X triple speed, combining long and shorts positions.

- My Indices, sectors, and futures watchlists (not shown) are also fixed, covering the main index and commodities in Wall Street and major foreign exchanges, the usual managed by all traders.

- Those that do change permanently (usually weekly) are the symbols of my stock watchlists, shown below.

- I divided them into two groups for follow-up: Main15, which I follow on a daily basis, and Active, important stocks to follow due to news topics, popularity, unusual volume in shares or options, or huge changes in price or volatility. Over time, appears there a new stock, disappear other, some asce…

Elder: A Major Buy Signal on Stand-By

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By kind permission of Elder.com, the website of the recognized trader, Alexander Elder, I reproduce for you, literally, its article "Books and Trades #254: A major Buy signal on stand-by" of November 27th, about the actual behavior of the market and its incredible behavior in the Christmas week.



December 27, 2018

Dear Trader,

In my experience, the New High – New Low Index is the best leading indicator of the stock market. It works by tracking market leaders: the New Highs are the leaders of strength, New Lows of weakness. I track this indicator on both weekly and daily charts, in four look-back time windows. We post nightly updates of this indicator at SpikeTrade.com

My research during the past decade shows that the strongest signal of NHNL is a Spike – it occurs when the weekly NHNL drops below the minus 4,000 level and then rallies about it, showing that the decline has become exhausted. Let’s take a look:

This chart shows Spike signals during the 2008 bear market. Even in…

Stock Market reading through its main indices

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SP500, close 2416.62
I omit the Dow Jones in this article on the main indices of the market, because, to my liking, it is only a traditional index of Wall Street, a classic, but only useful as a daily reference ('how many points rose or fell today'), but unreliable for a serious analysis, because it is very small (only 30 companies) and limited to the industry sector, which does not reflect the entire market as the SP500 SPX does.

It is important to refer to the FED, the protagonist of the week, which raised interest rates by 0.25% to the range of 2.25-2.5%. In my opinion, an erroneous Rate Hike and also with a tone not as dovish as expected by investors. With a clear deceleration of its economy a few months ago due to effects of the Trade War among other factors, with forecasts of growth to the downside, with stagnant inflation and lower than expected, with the crude oil /CL prices falling to levels of $45, with a dangerously flat yield curve, I don't understand the reas…

The Apocalypse of the Retail sector?

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The purchase of organic giant Whole Foods WFM by Amazon AMZN at $13,700M continues to generate headlines within a week of its announcement. The immediate repercussion is the reinforcement in the fall of the Retail XTR sub-sector, which was already terrible in 2017 with news such as the closing of giant stores in the sector (Sears: 19 of its stores and 72 more on the way, JC Penney, RadioShack, Macy, among many others), Experts estimate that we are witnessing the beginning of the end of the retail as an economic model and lifestyle in the US, exported to the whole world. This good article by Francisco Jiménez for El Economista covers what I( say.




Grocery supermarkets, direct competitors, felt the blow, it is enough to see a week their falls in the price of their stocks:
Kroger KR -25%
Target TGT -13%
Costco COST -10%
WalMart WMT -5%


The new strategies, promotions and loyalty chains will be everything for these companies if they want to lose part of their market share to the technologi…

Wild sessions last week in Wall Street

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Market Pulse.
Ends a wild week in Wall Street, with the SP500 and the Nasdaq, already settled in a bearish environment, with its worst week since March, and almost all technical indicators negatives. Both started the week very optimistic (Monday + 2%) after the G20 and the news of an apparent truce in the US-China trade war, a fact that was losing strength as details of it were known, and protagonists of it, like Trump or Kudlow, began to spoke. The final thrust occurred half a week ago with the arrest of Ms. Meng Wanzhou, Huawei CFO, a police-diplomatic event that, if misused by the Chinese as it seems to be, can cause major problems for the markets. Wall Street understood it, finally closing with a worrying cumulative weekly drop of -5% in its main indices. And, technically, SPX has already lost the key SMA 200-day support, and now is facing a 'death cross' pattern between the moving averages 50 and 200-day, a clear bearish signal. It is not infallible but it must be taken …

December depends on the Trump-Xi meeting this weekend

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SP500: two resistance levels to break.
This week closes with a strong rebound of all Wall Street indices, starting with the most important one, the SP500 SPX, which recovered 5% since last Friday, at its last pullback, reaching again its crucial SMA200 average, and also the lower part of the Ichimoku cloud. Attention to these two important resistances because if it exceeds them, it can be the starting point to the traditional Christmas mini-rally. It is known that December is, seasonally, the best month in the stock markets, not only in the US but globally. But... wait for Trump-Xi meeting...







Factors
What factors have originated this bullish week? I see several. Perhaps the main one is the change of tone in the messages of the FED, recently hawkish, encouraging more Rate Hike adducing were necessary to boost the economy, to the completely dovish image of Powell this week, now announcing that the i-rate is in levels "just below neutral", that is, 'if I raise the i-rate I…