Showing posts from 2020

Fundamental Analysis: useless in 2020

Given the indecipherable fluctuations of the economy during this year, the title of this post reflects one of my feelings about this unusual 2020 stock market. A Q1 quarter where the SP500 falls 20% and the next Q2 turns around and rises the same 20% is surely something we will not experience again in our lives. Thus, it's complicated to make a serious analysis in an index ETF as usual, that is to say, reviewing both fundamentals and technicals details, alike.
Powell and the Fed with its zero i-rate (good decision) and unlimited QE (excessive) are artificially propping up the financial markets, literally destroying the risk in markets, instead of investing for growth, just for trying to hide the US (and global) recession, already foreseen since January and accentuated by the coronavirus. Now we have market indicators at dangerous edges, like the SKEW index (that measures the risk of a black swan, a 20%+ plunge of markets) spiking now above its March levels. Or the Nasdaq Put/Call…

My Stock Watchlist for June-July 2020

On my Thinkorswim trading platform, I manage several watchlists, differentiating them according to the instruments it contains. There are stocks, futures, ETFs, sectors, and indices watchlists.

My different ETFs watchlists usually keep the same symbols in time, diversified by sectors, industries, countries, commodities, both at 1X normal speed and 3X triple speed.  My Indices, sectors, and futures watchlists are also fixed, covering the main indexes and commodities from Wall Street and major foreign exchanges, usual symbols well-known by all traders.

Those that do change, usually monthly, are the symbols of my Stock Watchlist, stocks which I follow on a daily basis, due to my own research, that consider both fundamental and technical analysis, news topics, or simply popularity. Over time, it appears in the list new stocks, disappear others, according to the importance they are acquiring, in my opinion.

June-July Watchlist
After three months using hardly my "coronavirus strateg…

Best Candlestick Patterns for Price Action Analysis. Part 1

As mentioned in a recent post, the key for a better Price Action Analysis with candlesticks is "read" them at a glance and the patterns it forms, mainly when price approaches an S-R level, doing always in conjunction with volume.

Candlesticks are a reflection of what buyers and sellers are doing. You need to know its meaning: indecision, rejection, reversal, or momentum.  In Price Action Analysis, less is more with technical indicators: a few of them are enough. The same idea for candlestick patterns. You can find dozens of candlestick chart patterns, but I feel comfortable with a few of them, the most accurate in my point of view.  No need to memorize them all, just understand the mechanics behind this tool. Consider the following:

Single candlesticks
1- Pin Bar (or long-wick candle): the longer the wick, the better the candle. This candle means that indecision began, as buyers tried to push price higher but failed, causing the wick to show, meaning a rejection. There are b…

Price Action Analysis for Day Trading

In these days of coronavirus threat and extreme volatility in markets, it's risky for a conservative trader to enter with long positions, even in the short-term. With the SP500 now in a rebound (only due to portfolio rebalancings of investment funds and smart-money short-covering, not fresh money), the key is to see how the SPX will behave when it approaches the 50% of its Fibonacci retracement if it does. Historically in all crashes the Dow Jones (or SP500) have two minimums, the second even lower than the first. And with a world recession in the background, it is more than likely that this will happen in the next weeks.

Therefore, since the end of February, I closed my entire long portfolio and have no long positions when the daily session closes. In March the same: zero longs. I mean, I only do day trades on Index ETFs as SPY, QQQ and IWM. That's my "coronavirus strategy" in days of VIX above 50: preserve cash and do only day trades, closing the trade before the s…

Get Signals from VWAP and Awesome Oscillator

VWAP, the best trend indicator for day trading:
The volume-weighted average price is a powerful trend indicator for day trading, and it's crucial due to its heavy use by investment funds and smart-money. It looks like a moving average in your 1-minute chart (orange, in mine), and is the same weighted-average we learn in school, in this case, used with the two main factors involved in trading: price and volume.

Institutions work the investor's accounts always buying below the VWAP and selling above it. This way their actions push the price back toward the average, instead of away from it. That's great information for retail investors and traders!

I trade the VWAP in two different ways, depending on the type of trade: breakouts, and pullbacks.

- For breakouts, look first when the price is below the VWAP and, due to price action, crosses it with a big momentum candle.  If this candle also breaks any of your resistance lines (or a trendline), that reinforces the strategy. Then…

Trading the Volatility. Part 2

The VIX and its inverse relationship with the markets:
The VIX, as a contrarian indicator, is an incredible weapon for technical traders to determine extreme conditions of bullish or bearishness of the market, using its inverse relationship: when the market is rallying, the VIX tends to drop; when the market is tanking the VIX tends to rise. Smart and serious investors use it to bet against the crowd when its greed (or fear) levels are high. And mainly, they use it as protection or hedge for their investments.

The VIX, also known as the 'fear gauge', measures the frequency and intensity of changes in the SP500 in the short-term (30 days), through the implied volatility IV of its at-the-money call and put options. A level below 20 generally indicates a bearish or complacent market, while reads above 30 are generally associated with a large amount of volatility, and mean that investor fears are taking place.

Smart traders usually "buy bargains" when volatility is hi…

Take Advantage of Options: Three Ideas

As you know, the US main brokers (Ameritrade, Fidelity, Charles Schwab, eTrade) are now offering zero-commission in stocks, ETFs and options trading. A piece of great news, by far the best this year for retail traders.  It's a great opportunity to start trading options more aggressively, creating an options-based portfolio as now commissions are no longer cutting our profits. I share here some suggestions for taking advantage of the power of options during trading.

1. Options as a substitute for Stocks: Delta > 0.80
Substituting stocks with options has two unique advantages: only options bring leverage and protection.

- Options provide tremendous financial leverage to users when they are used in a conservative way: you can control the same amount of shares with less money, and mainly, the % returns are much higher when you trade with options. This carries another advantage: with more money available you can diversify better your portfolio.

- And provide protection: with the ap…

Basics of Elliot Waves, a prediction tool

The Elliot Waves theory is very popular among traders. Proposes that trends in price results from traders' predominant psychology, with the same recurring movements in fractal "waves" patterns. So, price action is divided into impulsive and correction moves. Trends show the main direction of prices, while corrections move against the trend.

The theory is extensive, many books and strategies are developed from them, and some traders only trade using this theory.  I think that for use as an additional tool for our day trade analysis, we just need to manage the basics of impulse and corrective waves, for a preception of the price structure and identify repeatable patterns.
The Elliot Waves Theory has three rules and more guidelines to follow, and usually what you see sometimes didn't match with another trader view.

1. Five impulsive waves 12345 moves in the direction of the main trend, followed by three waves ABC in a correction (totaling a 5-3 move). The underlying 5-…

Designing a Winner Portfolio for 2020

The year 2020 begins and investors and traders are designing the best asset allocation for their portfolios. And they ask ourselves the usual questions: how will this year comes and what surprises will it bring? What will be the performance of the global economy, today in deceleration with central banks resorting to declines in i-rate and debt issuance? Will the anticipated recession, due to inversion of the yield curve since 2018, finally will occur or seems the US its avoiding it? Will its manufacturing indices fall further and will consumption continue to be the mainstay of its economy? Will the impressive growth of the US exchanges continue or the correction finally come after 10 years of an incredible bullish rally? Will there really be a "Phase 2" in the Trade War? And the Brexit? Many questions and the experts are divided. Whatever the new year has in store, you've got options for investing in 2020 that promise a positive return.

This 2020 I will look for defensiv…

Stock Watchlist: January-February 2020

Happy New Year, traders!
The 2019 trading year finished with a great performance for Wall Street, and also for some followers of this blog (thanks for the private messages!). Hopefully, the recommendations from the "Watchlist Update" posts and my daily tweets did it well. If you follow and trade them, good for you. It's your own responsibility.

For this 2020, I reduced to 15 the stocks of my Watchlist. I'm holding some stocks from my last Watchlist November-December, due to its good performance in these two months and an interesting forecast for next quarter:

- Disney DIS: my favorite stock for 2019 and a candidate to repeat this year.
- Fiserv FISV: now consolidating, ready for its next breakout.
- Kroger KR: we all need a defensive stock in our watchlist, and Kroger did well that "mission", rising when the market corrects. The recent alliance with Walgreens is another hit.
- Lennar LEN: its recent brilliant Q4 earnings report could send its shares up the…